McLaughlin Capital Investments builds small, honest projects in public. The first is an automated experiment on prediction markets, run on zero real money. But the real thing here isn't a winning bet. It's an engine that tests whether an edge is actually real — scored honestly, out of sample, against the naive benchmark — and reports the truth even when the answer is no. Honest by design: the losses are taken as seriously as the wins, and "no edge" is a finding, not a failure. Live numbers stay on a private dashboard — this page is the story, not the scoreboard.
The most durable thing to come out of this project isn’t a bet — it’s a method: an independent, out-of-sample way to ask one plain question of any forecast — does it actually beat a fair, hard-to-beat naive benchmark? — scored with standard, published rules, and reported honestly even when the answer is no. That method now has a home of its own.
The first model it ever judged was my own. This project — McLaughlin Capital’s weather experiment — was its founding case study, an example client of sorts: I put my own forecasts through the test, and it returned a verdict of no edge. I published that plainly rather than bury it. That is exactly the honest, independent read the test exists to deliver — the kind of answer I’d want anyone to expect before trusting a model with something that matters.
Weather has always cost someone money — the cold snap that strains a utility, the drought that thins a harvest, the storm that empties a venue — and for as long as that’s been true, people have quietly paid to hand that risk to someone else. This is a practice run at understanding the other side of that trade. Where it could go, if it ever earns the right to, is from a notebook experiment toward carrying a little of that risk on its own small stake — not a service, and not other people’s money.
McLaughlin Capital Investments is an umbrella for small, self-funded projects built and tested in public — where the method matters more than any single result. The first is an automated bot testing whether a faint statistical edge in daily weather-temperature prediction markets is real — on paper money, in public, before any real capital.
The discipline is the point: a permanent odometer that never resets, fully reinvested (no withdrawals), survival first, slow and steady. Real money only gets deployed if the edge clears a hard proof bar — and so far, fair tests haven't found one. Even in the best case it would be a modest supplement, not a salary — and the most likely outcome, on the evidence so far, is no edge at all.
Along the way the project became something more durable than any single bet: a disciplined way I test whether my own forecasts actually beat the naive benchmark — using standard, off-the-shelf scoring rules — and admit it plainly when they don't. In a field full of edges that don't survive a fair test, telling the truth is the point. That method now has a home of its own — The Alpha Edge Test →
Paper trading. No real money. Not financial advice. The edge is not proven.
A static snapshot — paper/simulated, not live. No service is offered and no clients are accepted. © McLaughlin Capital Investments.